Fossil CO2 Set to Flatline in 2026 as Iran War Pushes Renewables
Carbon dioxide from burning oil, gas and coal is on course to stay level this year, according to a new global assessment. Scientists say the cause is partly a price shock from the war in Iran, and they warn that it proves little about the long run.
A flat line, not a peak
The Global Carbon Budget was presented at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey, on Tuesday. Its forecast puts the 2026 fall in fossil-fuel emissions at about 0.4% on last year. Emissions from oil alone are set to drop by 2%. Drivers are using less fuel, and more of them are buying electric vehicles.
About 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 will come from fossil fuels this year. Energy demand keeps growing as more people gain electricity, and solar, wind and electric vehicles cover two-thirds of that growth.
Glen Peters, a research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research, drew the line clearly. "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change," he said.
Forests and farmland push the total up
The fossil-fuel figure is only part of the picture. Emissions from deforestation and from turning wild land into farmland also rose, after major fires in south-east Asia. Added together, total carbon emissions are forecast to reach 43.3bn tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8bn tonnes last year.
The authors list what could break the trend. India may expand coal use further. Oil prices could ease. President Donald Trump is keen on fossil fuels. Much more investment in renewables and low-carbon technology would be needed to make cuts permanent.
Country by country
China, which emits more greenhouse gases than any other country, is on track to trim its emissions by close to 1% this year. Most of that comes from a 5% fall in oil use following the Iran war. Peters said it was too early to say whether China has peaked or whether emissions will rebound next year.
US emissions are likely to fall by about 1.3% as less coal is burned, despite Trump's efforts to boost it. India is going the other way. Its emissions have grown strongly, mostly because it uses more coal, even though its oil use has dipped slightly.
Little time left on the carbon budget
The scientists put the remaining carbon budget at about 150bn tonnes. That is how much can still be emitted before warming is likely to settle for good above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels. At current rates it is less than four years of emissions. Temperatures have already been above the 1.5C threshold for more than two years.
El Niño is warming the sea and air further. The scientists say global emissions have to peak very soon and then drop quickly if there is any chance of holding the overshoot above 1.5C in check.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, was not involved in the research. He called the result "a flatline, not a decline" and said a fall of 0.4% is statistically indistinguishable from zero. He expects a sustained breach of 1.5C by around 2030 and says he saw little sign that the Cop31 leadership of Turkey and Australia would push for stronger action.
Hare also pointed to Canada, the US and New Zealand, which he said are rolling back climate policies. Australia, co-president of Cop31, keeps pressing ahead with large coal and gas developments, he said.
Cop31 is a fortnight of talks. Leaders and high-ranking delegates are gathering: over 90 heads of state and government, and senior representatives of over 190 countries.
Source: the Guardian